(Ecofin Agency) - Gold prices are on track to soar, and African countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Ivory Coast stand to gain, as they rely heavily on this mineral.

JP Morgan, in a report released April 22, 2025, predicts gold will average $3,675 an ounce by the last quarter of 2025 and surpass $4,000 by mid-2026. The bank warns this milestone could come even sooner if demand outpaces expectations.

"Underpinning our forecast for gold prices heading towards $4,000/oz next year is continued strong investor and central bank gold demand averaging around 710 tonnes a quarter on net this year," the bank noted.

Gold prices hit a new milestone Tuesday, breaking through $3,500 an ounce for the first time. The surge is fueled by growing fears over the U.S.-China trade war and escalating tensions between President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which rattled Wall Street.

Trump recently threatened to fire Powell for refusing to cut interest rates as the president demands. This political drama has unsettled markets and pushed investors toward gold as a haven.

The ongoing trade war, marked by reciprocal tariffs between the world’s two largest economies, is driving investors away from riskier assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar has weakened, dropping to its lowest level against the euro in three years, further boosting gold’s appeal.

Historically, gold prices move in the opposite direction to interest rates. Higher rates make bonds and other yield-bearing assets more attractive, pulling money away from gold, which pays no dividends or interest. But when interest rates fall, bond yields drop, and gold regains its status as a safe investment—especially amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Gold prices face two key risks, JP Morgan warns: a drop in demand from central banks and a resilient U.S. economy that weathers the trade war with China better than expected. 

Earlier this April, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 from $3,300 to $3,700 an ounce. The bank also noted that in “extreme scenarios,” gold could trade near $4,500 an ounce by year-end.

For African countries like Mali, Ivory Coast, and Burkina Faso, where gold mining drives foreign exchange earnings, rising prices mean big gains. Governments stand to benefit not only from increased profits as shareholders in gold deposits but also from higher taxes and royalties tied to mining company earnings.

This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi

Edited in English by Ange Jason Quenum