(Ecofin Agency) - • WAEMU's economy is projected to grow by 6.5% in Q2 2025, driven by agriculture and a stable services sector.
• Despite the overall growth, the construction sector continues to shrink, with negative contributions to GDP for the third consecutive quarter.
• Rising public debt costs, security-related spending, and budget constraints are weighing on investment in large infrastructure projects.

The economy of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) continues to show solid growth in 2025, according to the latest projections from the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). The region's economy is expected to expand by 6.5% in the second quarter, mainly driven by increased agricultural output, especially in rural areas, and the stability of the non-market services sector.

However, behind this optimistic outlook, concerns persist. The construction and public works sector (BTP), traditionally a key driver of economic and social development in the region, continues to struggle. The BCEAO's projections indicate that the sector will contribute negatively to GDP for the third consecutive quarter, with a decline of -8.6% in Q3 2025, following a -9.3% decrease in the final quarter of 2024.

Several factors explain this downturn: reduced public investment, budget cuts affecting major projects, and delays in the execution of infrastructure programs. The overall budgetary situation remains tight in several WAEMU countries, which face urgent social priorities and rising security spending. Moreover, many governments are dealing with high debt costs and limited fiscal space.

This slowdown follows a period of intense public investment, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire., ahead of the Africa Cup of Nations. The country fast-tracked the completion of stadiums, roads, and urban infrastructure, but the pace of activity has now returned to more typical levels. "There was a cycle of heavy public investment between 2022 and 2023, particularly in Côte d’Ivoire. Now, budget margins are much more constrained, and this is being felt across all the member states," said Henoc Dossa, a journalist specializing in transport and infrastructure in West Africa.

On the ground, businesses remain cautious. While construction orders remain plentiful in several major cities, the sector's momentum is slow to materialize. BCEAO surveys of business leaders confirm this trend: the construction sector's activity index remained positive at +7.7 points in January 2025, but showed a slight decrease from December. This reflects mixed performance across the region.

Activity is improving in Senegal (+43.2 points), Benin (+23.1 points), Burkina Faso (+16.9 points), Côte d’Ivoire (+9.0), Togo (+8.9), and Guinea-Bissau (+8.2). On the other hand, Mali (-40.8) and Niger (-24.9) recorded significant declines. These disparities are largely due to varying budgetary paths and different conditions for executing infrastructure projects.

The contrast is particularly striking when compared to other sectors. The manufacturing industry is expected to grow by 4.8% in the second quarter, while extractive activities and energy distribution remain stable. The primary sector benefits from a favorable agricultural environment, with projected growth of 1.6 percentage points, driven solely by food crops.

In terms of prices, inflation remains under control. The annual inflation rate is expected to drop to 2.0% in April 2025, down significantly from 6.0% at the end of 2021. This easing is expected to be driven by falling international food prices and an increased domestic food supply.

Fiacre E. Kakpo