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IEA says oil glut to persist until late 2017 as major oil producers prepare for informal talks

Tuesday, 27 September 2016 15:36

(Ecofin Agency) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has extended its global oil market outlook until late 2017 as major oil producing nations prepare to gather for talks in Algiers on Wednesday.

This is coming after the Agency on September 13, 2016 announced that oil supply will exceed demand at least through H1 of 2017.

We don’t see the oil market re-balancing until late 2017 provided there’s no major intervention,” Fatih Birol, IEA’s Executive Director said adding that oil demand growth has been weaker than anticipated.

This month, IEA reduced its outlook for consumption growth in 2016 and 2017. It predicted a demand growth of 1.3 million bpd in 2016, compared to the 1.6 million bpd in 2015 and 1.2 million bpd in 2017.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are to hold informal talks in Algers on Wednesday as they look to stabilize the market and bolster prices. But the group is not likely to take a formal decision on supply, thereby suspending it until its next official meeting in November.

Saudi Arabia has expressed its willingness to cut production to January level. That means about half of its 1 million-bpd increase in output.

There definitely seems to be a bigger push towards achieving some coordination amongst members this time around, so even if there is no concrete deal in Algeria, this isn’t over yet. The door remains open for further negotiations and a possible deal at the Nov. 30 OPEC meeting in Vienna,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. told Bloomberg.

Russia’s Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, has said that crude oil production frozen at the current level is beneficial for the country, and although it is essential that all oil-producing countries are keen on being a part of the agreement are contented with the decision.

The issue is under discussion. Of course, we would like all countries that could potentially participate in the freeze to be satisfied with this. Of course, for Russia it is more beneficial to freeze production at the current level,” he said.

Iran on the other hand, is not willing to freeze its oil output at current levels and reach an agreement with other major crude producers in Algiers this week.

The nation’s Oil Minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, has said that Iran plans increase its crude production to 4 million barrels a day.

It’s not our agenda to reach agreement in these two days. We are here for the IEF and to have a consultative informal meeting in OPEC to exchange views. Not more,” Zanganeh said.

Iran’s exports according to Mehdi Jamshidi Dana, director of the Dispatching Department of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) reached 3.92 bcm during the since six months between March 20 and September 21.

The exports increased by 3.4% year-on-year while the country's gas imports fell by 25.1% from the same period in 2015.

The Islamic Republic wants to recover its pre-sanctions share of OPEC production of about 13%.

The 14-membered cartel’s decision to hold informal talks on Wednesday has raised speculation that it might be about to move away from a two-year-old policy of pumping without restrictions, which has not only successfully affected rival suppliers but has also sent prices downward.

Anita Fatunji

 
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ECOFIN AGENCY offers a selection of articles translated from AGENCE ECOFIN. Founded in 2011, Agence Ecofin is a leader in Francophone Pan-African economic news, particularly in West and Central Africa. The agency publishes daily news on nine African economic sectors: Public Management, Finance, ICT, Agribusiness, Energy, Mining, Transport & Logistics, Communication, and Training.

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