(Ecofin Agency) - In March 2024, Moody’s upgraded Côte d’Ivoire’s credit rating to Ba2, making it the second-highest rated economy in sub-Saharan Africa, alongside South Africa. Despite the challenges of the upcoming election, Fitch believes the country will remain stable, backed by strong growth and ongoing reforms.

Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Côte d’Ivoire’s BB- credit rating with a stable outlook, despite political and social uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election in October 2025. The agency cited strong economic growth, disciplined fiscal management, and sound macroeconomic policies, supported by low inflation and a close partnership with the IMF.

The election will be a key test for the country’s political and social stability. While Côte d’Ivoire has a history of post-election violence, particularly in 2010-2011, Fitch expects any unrest to remain limited and not disrupt economic growth or fiscal consolidation efforts. The agency believes that economic reforms will continue without major setbacks and that policy continuity will be maintained.

Côte d’Ivoire’s economy remains one of the strongest in the region. Growth, estimated at 6.1% in 2024, is projected to accelerate to 6.5% in the medium term, far exceeding the 3.8% median for BB-rated countries. This momentum is driven by major public investments, a more diversified economy with growing gold and oil sectors, and stable macroeconomic policies.

Fitch also acknowledged the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts. The budget deficit is expected to reach 4% of GDP in 2024, in line with national targets, thanks to stronger revenue collection. The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points annually through 2028, supported by tax reforms, including streamlined exemptions and improved administration.

Despite these strengths, challenges remain. Per capita income is still low compared to other BB-rated countries, governance needs improvement, and political stability remains fragile. However, strict financial management is expected to bring public debt down from 58% of GDP in 2024 to 52.7% by 2026.

Finally, Fitch highlighted the strengthening of the BCEAO’s foreign reserves, which rose from $15.9 billion at the end of 2023 to $21.4 billion in December 2024. This improvement, driven by IMF measures and rising cocoa prices, reinforces Côte d’Ivoire’s economic resilience ahead of the elections.