• IMF lowers 2025 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa from 4.2% to 3.8%
• Trade tensions and tariff hikes by the United States are dragging down the global economy
• South Africa and Nigeria among the hardest hit in the region

The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2025, citing growing uncertainty and trade disputes between major economies. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF now expects the region to grow by 3.8% next year, down from an earlier forecast of 4.2%.

The downgrade comes just weeks after the United States announced sweeping tariff increases on a wide range of imports from key trading partners. The move, which took effect in early April, has triggered a new wave of retaliatory measures, most notably from China. The result is a sharp rise in global trade tensions that is now weighing heavily on short-term economic projections around the world.

“Shortly after the January update to our global outlook, the U.S. rolled out multiple rounds of tariffs targeting major trade partners and strategic sectors, culminating on April 2 with a near-universal tariff hike,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. “Although many of these increases are still on hold, the combined effect of the measures and the responses they triggered has pushed both U.S. and global tariff rates to their highest levels in a century.”

Gourinchas warned that this climate of uncertainty is likely to slow global growth significantly. The IMF now expects the world economy to grow by just 2.8% in 2025, down from 3.3% in its January projections. The fund emphasized that its current forecast reflects a central scenario and that outcomes could vary widely depending on how the trade situation evolves.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s revised growth outlook for 2025 also reflects a slight slowdown compared to 2024, when growth is projected to reach 4%. Several of the region’s largest economies are feeling the impact of the downgrade.

Nigeria is now expected to grow by 3.0% in 2025, 0.2 points below previous estimates, with a further slowdown to 2.7% in 2026. South Africa is facing an even steeper drop, with its 2025 forecast down by 0.5 points to 1.0%. Growth in 2026 is expected to reach only 1.3%. The IMF pointed to a mix of weaker-than-expected performance in 2024, rising uncertainty, growing protectionism, and slowing global demand as key reasons behind the downward revisions.

The IMF does expect the region to bounce back slightly in 2026, with growth projected at 4.2%. However, it cautioned that this recovery could be delayed or derailed if trade tensions continue to escalate.

“Uncertainty around trade policy is weighing heavily on our outlook,” Gourinchas said. “Many businesses are holding off on investments and reducing orders due to unclear access to markets—both their own and those of their suppliers and customers. Banks are also being more cautious in lending, waiting for better visibility on their exposure. This combination of rising uncertainty and tighter financial conditions is creating a global drop in demand that is already slowing activity. The recent fall in oil prices is just one sign of that.”