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Low oil prices persist putting more pressure on OPEC states to resolve issues – Analysts

Friday, 22 January 2016 17:37

(Ecofin Agency) - The more the prices of crude oil in the international market continues to decline, the more the pressure on OPEC members to come to an agreement increases, analysts revealed.

The first two objectives of either getting all the OPEC countries to collectively make production cuts or introduce participation of additional major non-OPEC countries, albeit not necessarily with a membership of OPEC, were to ensure that the burden of adjusting to market balances does not entirely fall on the Gulf Trio and Saudi Arabia in particular,” analysts at JP Morgan bank.

Analysts have kept to their opinion, that OPEC is not likely to reach any agreement in the short-run. It is also believed that the most important trend to making a production cut at this time is the comeback of Iranian crude to the international markets.

While the expected rise in supply is only 400,000 bpd year over year, any move to cut supply by other OPEC members only creates extra room for these barrels and possibly creates a false image of a functioning cartel”, the analysts said.

According to Trend news, OPEC 2016 crude oil supply growth is estimated at 0.8 million bpd, led by Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia while at 32.3 million bpd in 2017, driven by the analysts’ prediction that Iran will lift production by an additional 300,000 bpd.

OPEC in its latest report revealed that it had reduced oil production by 210,000 bpd in December. The group’s members produced 32.182 million bpd in December, counting some 693,000 bpd, produced by Indonesia.

Demand for OPEC’s crude last year was valued at 29.9 million bpd, representing a growth of 0.2 million bpd over the 2014 level. This year, demand for its crude is estimated at 31.6 million bpd, 1.7 million bpd greater than the 2015.

 

Anita Fatunji

 
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ECOFIN AGENCY offers a selection of articles translated from AGENCE ECOFIN. Founded in 2011, Agence Ecofin is a leader in Francophone Pan-African economic news, particularly in West and Central Africa. The agency publishes daily news on nine African economic sectors: Public Management, Finance, ICT, Agribusiness, Energy, Mining, Transport & Logistics, Communication, and Training.

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