(Ecofin Agency) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts electric vehicle (EV) sales will hit 40 million units by 2030. This surge could benefit Africa, which possesses about 30% of the minerals needed to produce these vehicles.

Global sales of electric and hybrid vehicles are expected to surpass 20 million units in 2025, up at least 17% compared to 2024. Reuters reported the forecast issued on January 28 by Rho Motion, a research firm. The projection covers both fully electric and hybrid vehicles.

The growth in EV sales will largely be driven by China, which is set to remain the dominant player in the market. Rho Motion’s forecast was partly based on China’s ambition to leverage state subsidies to boost consumption. Following China, the European Union and the United States are expected to see growth rates of 15% and 16%, respectively.

Experts believe that EV sales could rise even more in the coming years as countries work towards reducing global warming, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement. The International Energy Agency (IEA) supports this view, forecasting that global EV sales will exceed 40 million by 2030.

Good News for Africa

Africa could win big from the projected growth in EV sales over the next decade; the continent is estimated to host around 30% of the world's critical minerals needed to make electric vehicles and their batteries. These minerals include copper, cobalt, lithium, aluminum, nickel, manganese, and rare earths.

Some major producers of these minerals are African. Key African players include the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a top copper and cobalt producer, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Tanzania, Madagascar, and Mali (with its new Goulamina lithium mine). These countries could significantly contribute to the EV materials supply chain.

Moreover, they could attract new investments from companies eager to partner in mineral extraction. A study by Future Minerals Forum highlighted that around $5.4 trillion will be needed for critical minerals by 2035 as part of the energy transition, with Africa set to be a primary beneficiary.

Challenges Ahead

Despite these positive projections for Africa's involvement in the EV market, many African producers still export minerals in their raw form and struggle with other parts of the value chain. They currently earn only about 40% of what they could from these resources, according to UNCTAD.

There is a growing awareness among producers about the need for local processing clauses when dealing with foreign investors. However, significant challenges remain. James Wakiaga, UNDP Resident Representative in Zambia, pointed out issues such as unreliable electricity, lack of technical expertise, high investment costs, and the need for regional coordination.

This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou (intern)  

Edited in English by Ola Schadrac Akinocho

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