(Ecofin Agency) - Copper is a key indicator of the global economy. This year, Donald Trump's return to power and the Chinese economy will likely affect the metal’s prices. These factors will be closely monitored in the DRC and Zambia.

Rio Tinto and Glencore are discussing a potential merger. The move focuses on copper, as the metal’s price should fluctuate this year due to political decisions and the state of the global economy.

BMI recently analyzed Trump's potential reversal of climate commitments while ramping up oil production. They warn this could harm the "green sentiment" that supported copper prices in 2024. Consequently, they lowered their price forecast for copper to an average of $10,000 per tonne.

S&P Global Commodity Insights also notes that the new U.S. administration's policies may impact copper prices. In a 30 December 2024 report, they stated that tariffs planned by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could pull copper prices away from market fundamentals. This could lead to inflation and reduce demand for copper. They expect copper prices for delivery in three months to average $9,825 per tonne in 2025, slightly up from $9,307 per tonne estimated for 2024 but below previous forecasts.

Last September, Goldman Sachs cut its price forecast for copper by about $5,000. However, the firm is more optimistic than others, believing China's economic stimulus can sustain copper demand and push prices to $10,160 per tonne by 2025.

China and Climate Factors

As the world's top consumer of copper, China significantly influences its price. In 2024, challenges in China's economy, especially in real estate, contributed to falling copper prices. BMI believes recent stimulus measures may not stabilize the economy enough to support copper prices.

In the medium to long term, analysts expect copper prices to rise, due to increasing demand, paired with the global energy transition, and a shortfall in copper concentrate. Commodity Insights predicts a concentrate deficit of 847,764 tonnes in 2025 due to low mine supply.

These forecasts are important for the DRC and Zambia, Africa's leading copper producers. Copper is their main export and a vital source of government revenue.

This article was initially published in French by Emiliano Tossou

Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho