(Ecofin Agency) - The decline in inflation, mainly driven by falling energy and food prices on the global market, is expected to give a fresh push to easing monetary policies and stimulate economic growth across the continent.

Inflation in Africa is expected to slow down in the coming years, dropping from an average of 16.1% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2025 and 9.9% in 2026, according to a March 17 report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).

This edition of the Economic Report on Africa 2025 arrives at a crucial moment in Africa’s economic evolution. With the #AfCFTA gaining momentum, success will hinge on clear vision, resolute commitment, & strategic action to maximize its potential.
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— ECA (@ECA_OFFICIAL) March 18, 2025

The Economic Report on Africa 2025 explains that the high inflation rates seen in 2023 and 2024 were mainly due to rising food prices, currency devaluations, and supply-demand imbalances in both local and global food markets. However, the projected decline in food and energy prices, along with weaker secondary effects (such as wage-price spirals), is expected to ease inflationary pressures in the coming years.

In 2024, West Africa recorded the highest inflation rate on the continent at 24.2%, followed by North Africa (15.5%), Southern Africa (11.7%), East Africa (11.2%), and Central Africa (4.6%).

With inflation cooling, most African central banks will have more room to cut interest rates and support economic growth, the report notes. Africa’s economy is expected to grow by 3.9% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, up from an estimated 2.9% in 2024. This growth will be driven by increased household spending as inflation eases, improved trade performance, and gradually looser global financial conditions.

However, growth in resource-dependent economies is expected to remain moderate due to falling commodity prices, as supply conditions improve. That said, factors like unfavorable weather, rising geopolitical tensions, and higher shipping costs could push food and commodity prices back up.

East Africa is projected to be the fastest-growing region, with an average economic growth of 6% in both 2025 and 2026, led by strong performances in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania.

West Africa is expected to grow at an average rate of 4.2% over the same period. Senegal is set to be the fastest-growing economy in the region, averaging 7% growth thanks to expanding mining activity, the start of gas production, stronger fiscal discipline, and controlled inflation. Côte d’Ivoire’s growth will be fueled by strong oil and gold production, rising exports, and moderate inflationary pressures.

In North Africa, the economy is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. Central Africa’s growth is expected to hover around 3% over the two years, while Southern Africa is set to see slower growth at 2.4%.

 This article was initially published in French by Walid Kéfi

Edited in English by Firmine AIZAN