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Oil Price: producers fail to arrive at a deal, analysts projects severe consequences

Monday, 18 April 2016 14:59

(Ecofin Agency) - The much awaited deal between members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-members to freeze output has finally come and gone, dashing hopes of a stabilized market.

Eighteen oil countries which includes Russia, met in Qatari for what the world anticipated to be the last phase of the declining oil prices in the global market but the deal had failed following Saudi Arabia’s request that Iran join the meeting.

Saudi Arabia had told the gathering that it wanted all members of the cartel to be part of the freeze, including Iran.

Several sources from OPEC has said that if Iran can agree to take part in the freeze at the next meeting on June 2, the negotiations with non-OPEC producers might continue.

Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh (photo) last week said that OPEC and non-OPEC producers should accept the reality of Iran's comeback to the oil market.

If Iran freezes its oil production ... it cannot benefit from the lifting of sanctions,” he said.

The disappointment to arrive at a global deal can put a stop to the recent improvement in oil prices.

Francis Perrin, the Chairman of Strategy and Energy Policy and the Editor of OAG Africa, last week said that the impact on not arriving at an agreement can be very severe for producers : Oil prices are on the rise since mid-February and one of the key reasons of this increase is the expectation of an agreement at the Doha meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries. If there is no agreement on a production freeze, prices will fall again. If there is an agreement it will allow producers to consolidate the recent rise in oil prices and there will perhaps be a slight bonus. Producers meeting in Doha will not reduce their production. This issue is not on the table. But the consequences of the absence of an agreement would be very severe for all producers. Everyone is very aware of this risk,” he said.

Meanwhile, Oil prices tumbled on Monday. Brent crude futures dropped by nearly 7% in early trading before getting to $40.97 per barrel.

Oil prices have dropped by over 70% since mid-2014 as producers have supplied 1 to 2 million bopd more than demand. In December, OPEC was unsuccessful in arriving at a production policy for the first time in years following Iran’s disagreement over a production ceiling suggested by Saudi Arabia, saying that it wants to increase output after sanctions.

Saudi Arabia has taken a strong stand towards Iran which is the only producer to disagree to be part of the freeze, Trade Arabia reports.

According to the Deputy Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman the kingdom might rapidly increase its output and contain its output only if Iran agree to a freeze.

Anita Fatunji

 
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ECOFIN AGENCY offers a selection of articles translated from AGENCE ECOFIN. Founded in 2011, Agence Ecofin is a leader in Francophone Pan-African economic news, particularly in West and Central Africa. The agency publishes daily news on nine African economic sectors: Public Management, Finance, ICT, Agribusiness, Energy, Mining, Transport & Logistics, Communication, and Training.

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