Both the World Bank and the IMF expect sub-Saharan Africa to get out of recession this year. However, only 4 countries in the region (Botswana, Seychelles, Burkina Faso, and Côte d'Ivoire) will record growth of 6% or more.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, in its new global economic outlook report, economic growth of 3.7% for sub-Saharan Africa in 2021. The Bretton Woods institution made its forecast public a few days after the World Bank also forecasted an economic recovery for the region this year.

Growth will not be evenly distributed across the region. Only four countries will record growth of 6% or more; and only Botswana is expected to reach 9.2%, the highest rate on the continent. Seychelles will follow with 6.9%, Burkina Faso with 6.7%, and Côte d'Ivoire with 6%. Although this outlook seems to be close to that of the World Bank, which was expecting a 3.3% recovery for the region, some differences remain. While the World Bank expects Angola to grow by 0.4%, the IMF says the country would not emerge from recession this year. IMF forecasted a negative growth of -0.7% for Angola. This outlook is motivated by the country's oil dependence, against a backdrop of excessive debt. Legislative and presidential elections in the country are scheduled for next year.

The Central African Republic and the Republic of Congo are also forecasted to have negative growth at -1% and -0.2% respectively. Nigeria and South Africa, are expected to return to positive growth, marking the end of an economic crisis that plunged them into recession. According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 2.6%, while South Africa will grow by 5%.

The institution however conditions its outlook on the successful fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, notably through a successful vaccination campaign. IMF expects growth in sub-Saharan Africa to reach 3.8% in 2022.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou