Aura Energy, the owner of the Tiris uranium project in Mauritania, plans to commence operations at what could be the country's first uranium mine by 2026. The project is expected to produce 2 million pounds of uranium annually over 25 years. By doubling its annual production, the company would be better equipped to benefit from any increase in demand and nuclear fuel prices.

Aura Energy unveiled on December 13 an alternative production strategy for the Tiris deposit, which is expected to be Mauritania’s first uranium mine by 2026. This new plan suggests that the mine's annual production could be doubled to approximately 4 million pounds. 

This would require a 93% increase in the initial investment, from $230 million to $445 million. The mine's lifespan would reduce to 16 years, from 25 years in Aura's original plan. Another option involves producing up to 3 million pounds per year with an initial investment of $317 million.

Either alternative would be implemented in the mine's third year of operation. While Aura is yet to decide, CEO Andrew Grove noted that these options demonstrate the potential for significant growth at Tiris through future expansion of the project from Stage 1 cash flows.

Increased uranium production in Tiris’ early years could allow the company to benefit more from higher prices. Analysts predict a significant rise in uranium demand in the coming years, potentially leading to a supply deficit that could drive up prices. According to Kazatomprom, the world's leading producer, the supply deficit could reach 21 million pounds by 2030 and jump to 147 million pounds by 2040.

At $80 per pound, the reference scenario is more profitable for Aura Energy, with projected revenues of $3.4 billion over the mine's life. This exceeds the $2.8 billion expected from the alternative scenarios, mainly because the reference scenario means producing 43.5 million pounds of uranium, while the alternatives yield 37.9 million pounds.

Aura Energy will make a final investment decision on the Tiris project in the first quarter of 2025. Uranium production is planned to start in late 2026 or early 2027, which will make Mauritania the second-largest uranium producer in West Africa, following Niger.

This article was initially written in French by Emiliano Tossou and edited by Feriol Bewa