(Ecofin Agency) - In a joint statement released on Sunday, January 28, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger declared their intention to withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Following the announcement by the three countries, now collectively known as the Alliance of Sahel States, the organization responded with a statement on its official website.

"Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger remain important members of the Community, and the conference is committed to finding a negotiated solution to the political impasse," reads the document, which specifies that further statements will be made "as the situation develops".

Per Article 91 of the ECOWAS revised treaty, “any Member State wishing to withdraw from the Community shall give to the Executive Secretary one year's notice in writing who shall inform the Member States thereof. At the expiration of this period, if such notice is not withdrawn, such a State shall cease to be a member of the Community”.

“During the one year referred to in the preceding paragraph, such a Member State shall continue to comply with the provisions of this Treaty and shall remain bound to discharge its obligations under this Treaty.”

Despite the statements by the three countries being read on their national TV channels and circulating on social media, the withdrawal is still well short of diplomatic practice, and in all three countries, there is no proof of public or electoral consultations.

Let’s recall that their announcement echoes that of Mauritania in 2000, although the circumstances and conditions differ. Indeed, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are now willing to quit ECOWAS as they face international isolation for seizing power through armed means.

In the cases of Burkina Faso and Mali, this withdrawal announcement came at a time when the international community was awaiting updates about the electoral processes in both countries. The military in power had promised elections in 2024 in consultation with ECOWAS. In Mali, the date has been indefinitely postponed, and in Burkina Faso, leaders have prioritized the fight against terrorism.

In Niger, discussions remain stalled, and the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, remains detained with no indication of a civilian power transition by the military.

In recent months, the three countries have strengthened individual and sometimes collective alliances with Russia. New partnerships also appear to be forming with Iran, and economically, China continues to assert its influence. The visit of the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has not eased tensions, despite his diplomatic approach.

It is also important to note that the withdrawal of the three countries from ECOWAS establishes a legal precedent. Per ECOWAS statutes, the organization must wait for a minimum of one year before revoking the departing countries' benefits from its association agreement. No additional sanctions can be imposed, as a series of sanctions has already been implemented.

Economic and social implications

If effective, this withdrawal is likely to impact trade corridors, especially for economic stakeholders in these countries. Although the three countries have no sea route, they can invoke international agreements on the rights of landlocked countries to force ECOWAS coastal countries to allow the transit of their goods.

In a region where the free movement of people has allowed significant diaspora populations from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to settle in other ECOWAS countries and vice versa, the withdrawal decision raises concerns. According to a 2014 census, 3.5 million Burkinabe live in Côte d'Ivoire alone. This represents a significant number of individuals who may need to regularize their status if a new migration policy is implemented between their host and home countries.

WAEMU and the CFA Franc

Rumors of the creation of a common currency for the three countries, the "Sahel", have intensified in recent months. The Alliance of Sahel States has always criticized the CFA franc, the former colonial currency, and their departure from it seems inevitable.

However, the process seems more complex. Indeed, the example of the Malian franc, which served as the official currency between 1962 and 1984, has shown that the question of monetary sovereignty cannot be simplified from a geopolitical perspective.

In their respective 2024 budget laws, Mali and Burkina Faso have planned to raise financing from the public securities market to support their budgets. Bamako aims to raise CFA1,444 billion ($2.3 billion), while Ouagadougou targets CFA1,220 billion. These suggest that an exit from the CFA Franc by at least these two countries is not yet on the agenda for the coming year.